Why the Favorites Flopped at the 2026 Mid-Season Cup—3 Main Reasons

The group stage of the 2026 Mid-Season Cup has already delivered some surprising results: Team Liquid, the leader of the Philippine region, finished in last place without a single win, the 2024 champion SRG failed to advance to the playoffs, and the Turkish team Aurora Gaming stepped into the spotlight by defeating two favorites in a row.

It would seem that the MSC format and esports in general contribute to such results—but in MLBB, the dominance of the Philippines and the three major MPL leagues has always been unshakable. See for yourself:

It was also striking how this played out at the MSC in Paris. Team Liquid lost almost without a fight to the modest Entity7 from the Americas, while SRG barely avoided finishing in last place by substituting Muhammad “Sekys” Shahrul Zaman midway through the series.

How is it possible that the stars from the Philippines and Malaysia—who set the tone for the entire Mobile Legends pro scene—ended up suffering such a crushing defeat? We’ve identified three main reasons for what happened.

The first and most obvious factor, highlighted by the players and experts themselves, is the shift in the meta—a change that not all top teams managed to adapt to in time. The balance of power in the Land of Dawn shifted just a few days before the tournament, and this particularly affected junglers: tank heroes took a back seat, and it turned out that assassins were much more effective.

At the top of the pick count during the group stage of the 2026 Mid-Season Cup were Hirara, Fanny, and Ling—characters that aren’t the easiest to play and required players to master them fairly quickly. 

Hirara, in particular, went from being a source of frustration for the community to becoming arguably the most important character—while in some matches she dominated the game with her “dances,” in others she was almost useless on the map and in team fights. For example, SRG replaced Sekys right after a poor performance on Hirara: it turned out that Muhammad “Unii” Razman plays Red Death much better. That was enough to avoid elimination by Geekay Esports and even compete with ONIC for the last spot in the playoffs.

The Filipino roster of Liquid—and specifically Karl “KarlTzy” Nepomukeno—is also struggling with the new mid-lane pool, as Zaur “zaur egoist” Magomadov from Team Spirit told us after the group stage:

As a result, the teams that were less reliant on a single tank-based strategy and practiced a variety of heroes throughout the season gained the upper hand. To a lesser extent, this also applies to other roles—Eidora and Selena began appearing more often in place of Zhuxin and Valentina, while Barts, Melissa, Chu, and others entered the meta.

The Asian teams’ overconfidence in the strength of their strategies let the favorites down: Not everyone was able to abandon the tried-and-true strategies that had worked against all the MPL powerhouses and in scrims against other top regions in Southeast Asia—and by the time they tried to adapt, it was already too late.  

That said, the meta is far from the only problem for Liquid PH and Selangor Red Giants. We’ve grown accustomed to all-Asian finals at the M and Mid-Season Cup, and even two or three years ago, Philippine teams could easily shut down opponents from other regions—even after losing the pick phase—simply by relying on their superior individual skill and team play. 

However, recently it has become increasingly clear that teams from other regions are now capable of punishing the favorites for their mistakes. Team Spirit (then known as DeVu) was among the first to do this at M5 and M6, and more recently, the Turkish team Aurora has begun to challenge the Asian powerhouses. For others, such victories are more of a fluke—as in the Entity7 vs. Liquid match—but even these flukes are becoming more common.

For a long time, the Philippines (and, to a lesser extent, Indonesia and Malaysia) managed to stay ahead thanks to their earlier start in Mobile Legends: Bang Bang, extensive experience, and a well-established esports ecosystem. But now they’ve reached a sort of ceiling, and other regions—EECA, Turkey, the Americas, and MENA—are rapidly closing the gap.

Neil “Midnight” De Guzman, head coach of Aurora Gaming, discussed this in an interview with our website:

The elimination of two top teams doesn’t mean that all regions now have equal opportunities. What has happened won’t change the leaders’ positions on the world stage right now. The Philippines remains the strongest region in MLBB, and it’s not certain that this will ever change. The same can be said for Indonesia and Malaysia—even after five such setbacks, neither the United States nor Cambodia will overtake them in the power rankings.

The gap isn’t closing as quickly as it might seem. But now, a big name and victories in the domestic league alone aren’t enough—the international scene has become significantly more competitive. The powerhouses can no longer afford to arrive at a major tournament unprepared—others have shown that they’re ready to punish them for it.

The Mid-Season Cup format deserves a separate discussion. Unlike the M World Championship, there is no “Swiss system” in the group stage or a lower bracket in the playoffs here—any team is just two losses away from elimination.

For example, SRG could have bounced back after making a substitution, but their opening loss to PRO Esports proved too costly for the Malaysians: they were forced to face ONIC in a do-or-die match. Even Team Liquid could, in theory, have had time to regroup if the tournament had been spread out over a longer period: in Paris, the team’s run lasted just three days.

Even the experienced Stanislav “SAWO” Reshnyak of Team Spirit prefers a more leisurely tournament format—though he notes that, to succeed, you have to win regardless.

The MSC 2026 format, which likely leaves no room for error, wasn’t the cause of the upset in and of itself, but it complemented the shift in the meta and the overall trend of regional growth. 

It’s also worth noting the venue—unlike all previous M-Championships, this is the first time Europe is hosting the tournament. Previously, the whole world would travel to visit the Asian powerhouses, training in their environment: this could have skewed the meta toward a style more typical of the Philippines and Indonesia. The world’s top teams already had an advantage, but they also remained in a comfortable environment, while others had to adapt.

This time, everyone is on equal footing: after arriving in France, the teams are only playing scrimmages against each other, and it’s not possible to test their strategies against other leaders from the SEA region. If anyone arrived at the tournament with their usual strategies—which weren’t working—there was no time left to adjust.

This applies not only to Liquid PH and SRG—it’s just that their failures are the most noticeable. For example, Team Spirit also prepared in Malaysia and at times failed to meet the meta, just like IGNITE or True Rippers.

It’s quite possible that the major upsets of the 2026 Mid-Season Cup came to an end with the group stage. The other Asian powerhouses (Falcons PH, ONIC, and Vitality) have already had a chance to test the meta—and even if they haven’t, a three- or four-day break will certainly be enough to address their weaknesses and identify their most effective compositions.

In individual matchups, Team Spirit and Aurora Gaming might surprise us, but it’s worth remembering that these are already established global powerhouses who tied for 5th and 6th place at the M7 World Championship and have long been competing on equal footing with Asia’s best teams. It’s unlikely they’ll be in contention for the EWC trophy, though they’re certainly capable of reaching the semifinals or even the finals.

For now, it seems that even such a fortunate turn of events isn’t enough to displace the dominant teams from the top spots at the end of a major tournament. But what we saw in Group B is already good news, indicating that the MLBB pro scene is becoming increasingly vibrant and exciting.