The Biggest Disappointment of the Season—Why Isn’t Natus Vinsere Winning Anymore?

After the summer break, Natus Vincere won two series out of four, but lost 4–5 in maps and 84–91 in rounds. At the Esports World Cup 2026, they defeated 3DMAX and The MongolZ, then lost to Legacy, and at the BLAST Open Fall 2026, they were unable to beat M80. During this time, the team dropped from 6th to 11th place in the VRS rankings.

The decline began earlier. At the IEM Cologne Major 2026, the team had two chances to advance to the playoffs but lost both decisive series. A comparison with their victorious run at IEM Atlanta 2026 highlights where the players and team play have faltered. Data is current as of August 27.

After a break, the roster started with a 13–9 win against 3DMAX and defeated The MongolZ 2–1. Then Legacy won 2–0—13–9 on Inferno and 13–2 on Ancient. In Porto, the team took Anubis from M80 with a score of 13-4 but lost Mirage and Inferno with scores of 6-13. Three of the five maps they lost ended with a margin of at least seven rounds; only Ancient against Legacy ended with an 11-round margin; both maps against M80 were lost by seven rounds. The problem isn’t just the series results: losing maps spiral out of control too quickly.

At the Major, the team lost to Team Spirit 0–2, then beat Legacy 2–0 and The MongolZ 2–1. They needed just one more win to make the playoffs, but Team Falcons and G2 Esports won their decisive series 2–1. The result: 9th–11th place and a 6–7 map record. There were 58 days between the Major and the EWC without any official matches. The current lineup’s overall record stands at nine series: four wins, five losses, and a 10–12 map record—meaning the slump cannot be attributed solely to the upset loss against M80.

We’re comparing IEM Atlanta 2026, IEM Cologne Major 2026, the Esports World Cup 2026, and the first three maps at the BLAST Open Porto 2026. The most recent stretch is too short to draw a definitive conclusion, but it shows their current form following the Major and the EWC. At the Major and in the four series following the break, b1t and w0nderful combined for a +113 point differential, while iM, makazze, and Aleksib totaled −105. The two leaders help secure individual maps, but their contributions aren’t enough to carry the entire series.

Valery “b1t” Vakhovsky is the most reliable rifler on the team. At the Major, he posted a 221:178 score and finished in the black in four out of five series. After the break—122:112; against M80, he was once again the team’s top killer—40:33. Over the past three months, his 3.0 Rating stands at 1.16, with a positive kill-death ratio in six out of nine series. Among players in similar positions, b1t ranks first in Rating and Trading—69/100; his Firepower of 75/100 is second only to Jimpphat’s 77/100. His Clutching score of 34/100 remains low, but his overall performance is consistent.

Igor “w0nderful” Zhdanov was named MVP of IEM Atlanta 2026 with a +107 differential over 16 maps. At the Major, he posted a 207:176 record; after his hiatus, he went 129:100 and finished in the black in all four series. Compared to m0NESY, molodoy, ZywOo, sh1ro, and torzsi, w0nderful has the lowest Rating—1.06—and Firepower of 61/100, but the best Clutching—98/100. His Sniping score of 92/100 is close to the 93–94 scores of his four rivals.

His AWP and clutch plays are effective, but his overall kill count is still lower. That said, the sniper finished every match in the black after the hiatus: his form doesn’t account for the lost series, even though his impact falls short of the top AWP stars.

Mikhail “iM” Ivan finished the Major with a 211:202 record and was in the black in four out of five series. After the break, he went 106:119 and had two positive series out of four. Among NiKo, tN1R, dgt, Twistzz, and Staehr, he ranks second-to-last in Rating at 1.02, but second in Trading at 64/100, trailing only NiKo at 70/100. His Firepower of 58/100 is higher only than tN1R’s, indicating that his damage output has dropped the most. iM remains effective in trades but too rarely becomes the third source of kills.

Drin “makazze” Shakiri finished the IEM Cologne Major 2026 with a 188:210 record and was in the black in only one of five series. After a break, he posted a 112:123 record and two winning series out of four. After a 49:38 result against The MongolZ, he posted a combined 46:71 in matches against Legacy and M80. Across all nine series under review, he finished in the black three times. This represents the team’s biggest individual slump.

Over three months, his Rating 3.0 stands at 0.98. Compared to frozen, NertZ, KSCERATO, donk, and flameZ, he ranks last in Rating, Firepower (43/100), and Trading (13/100). However, his Entrying score of 79/100 is second only to flameZ’s, and his Opening score of 85/100 is behind only donk and flameZ. He makes initial contact, but lacks a consistent follow-through.

Over the nine maps following the break, makazze was involved in 54 out of 175 opening duels—31%, the highest among the five. He won 29 and lost 25, for a win rate of 53.7%. iM had 38 attempts, b1t had 32, w0nderful had 28, and Aleksib had 23. The team’s overall record in opening duels is positive—89:86—but across all rounds, they trail 84:91. This suggests that their early momentum is lost after initial contact: during exchanges, on power plays, and when switching to a backup plan.

The problem isn’t a lack of activity: the number of initial contacts is high. The gap emerges after those contacts. In the same group, frozen has a Rating of 1.18 and a Trading score of 56/100; KSCERATO has 1.16 and 59/100; and donk has 1.46 and 73/100. For makazze, the figures are 0.98 and 13/100. Therefore, a positive record in the early duels has not yet translated into a comparable contribution over the course of the map.

Aleksib Virolainen finished IEM Cologne with a record of 133:178, and 93:116 across four series following a break. He had a positive difference in two out of nine matches. Compared to magixx, karrigan, Krabeni, kyxsan, and HooXi, his Rating of 0.85 ranks fifth out of six, and his Firepower of 3/100 ties for last with karrigan. However, he ranks first in Trading—47/100—and second in Utility—87/100.

The captain’s low rating is only acceptable if the team has a stable system and the rest of the squad has sufficient firepower. Currently, the T-side is winning 41% of the rounds, while iM and makazze remain in the red after the break. Trading and Utility show that Aleksib helps his teammates, but a Firepower score of 3/100 leaves almost no margin for error for the marksmen. His contribution to the team does not compensate for the problems on offense.

Over nine maps since the break, the team won 32 rounds and lost 46 on attack—41%. On defense, the record is 52:45, or 53.6%. The average Rating of 3.0 on the T-side is below 1 for everyone: b1t — 0.98, iM and w0nderful — 0.96, Aleksib — 0.95, makazze — 0.86. Against M80, no one managed to break the 1.0 threshold. The difference between the sides is 12.6 percentage points—too much to be explained by a single bad hand.

Against Legacy, the attack ended 2:10 on Inferno and 0:3 on Ancient. Against M80, the team took two T-rounds on Mirage, but on the decisive Inferno map, they lost seven consecutive attacks after reaching 6:6. In all three cases, the map ended in a one-sided series. When their initial plan doesn’t work, NAVI changes the pace and direction of their attack too late.

In Cologne and after the break, the team played 22 maps. Their best result was on Mirage—3:2, or 60%. On Ancient and Inferno, their win rate is 50%; on Dust 2 and Anubis, it’s 33.3%; Nuke was lost once, and Cache wasn’t played at all. There is no reliable first pick. Mirage was played five times, but their own pick against M80 ended 6–13. On their most frequently played map, Inferno, the record is 3:3; Ancient, after two wins at the Major, resulted in two losses. The best win rate is 60% and is based on just three wins. No single map provides a consistent advantage.

On August 18, b1t said, “We’re now playing all seven maps in the map pool. Our Cache is still a bit rough around the edges.” So far, this broad approach hasn’t worked: only Mirage has been won more often than lost, and its lead is just one map. The top teams at the EWC had a consistent first ban: Team Spirit banned Inferno in seven out of seven matches, Team Vitality banned Ancient in five out of five, Team Falcons banned Cache in four out of four, MOUZ banned Anubis in three out of three.

This allows for more in-depth preparation for the remaining maps. A consistent ban doesn’t narrow the map pool: it frees up time for the maps that actually appear in the series. The team’s first ban varied in each series: Nuke against 3DMAX, Cache against The MongolZ, and Dust 2 against Legacy. A logical temporary ban would be Cache: it wasn’t played in the sample under review, and b1t called it “raw.”

On June 1, the team was in fourth place in the VRS with 1,940 points; on August 3, they were in sixth place with 1,802 points. Before the match against M80, the real-time rating was around 1,667 points, which corresponded to tenth place; after the loss, it was 1,644 points and eleventh place.

They’ve lost 296 points since June! This period included elimination from the Major, a 58-day break from competition, and two losses following the hiatus. Before facing M80, the team had already lost about 273 points, and the loss itself cost them another 23. The upset merely accelerated a decline that had begun earlier.

First, bring makazze back into the lineup. Over nine series, he finished in the black three times, and against Legacy and M80, he posted a 46:71 kill-death ratio. The team needs a consistent second source of kills alongside b1t; without noticeable improvement in the next series, the question of replacing him will become a practical one. Second—fix the T-side. The 89-86 score in the first duels shows some promise, but a 41% attack win rate points to losses down the line. The priority is quick transitions, executing 5v4 plays, and switching to a backup plan. Third—narrow down the map pool. Cache can be temporarily secured as the first ban, while preparation should focus on Inferno, Mirage, and one additional map of the team’s choice. The goal is to have two reliable maps, rather than merely being formally prepared for all seven.

If results don’t improve, the club has two options: add firepower while keeping the system intact, or bring in a new captain and rebuild the offense. This isn’t a transfer prediction, but a list of players whose roles and stats address the current weaknesses.

If the coaching staff trusts the current system, it makes more sense to look for a marksman: frozen is performing at his peak right now, nilo has strong stats but less experience against Tier 1 teams, and dziugss brings familiarity with the club and potential. If the main concern is the T-side and in-round decision-making, Krabeni appears to be the most well-rounded candidate. Before the transfer, makazze should be given the opportunity to regain his former form in the upcoming matches.