Vitality is the benchmark for consistency, while Team Spirit impresses with sheer volume: a statistical analysis of the 2026 Esports World Cup in CS2

With one day to go before the start of the 2026 Esports World Cup, there is no clear favorite: Team Vitality excels at the long haul, Team Spirit leads the VRS, Team Falcons brings a dangerous map pool, and 9z Team has made an incredible six-month surge. If you look at just one metric, the picture seems simple, but when you overlay form, shooting, utility, and map-specific stats, the familiar hierarchy begins to shift.

Team form and map results are based on a six-month period, individual profiles on three months, and KPR on a six-month snapshot from Bo3.gg: this breakdown by time periods allows us to assess both the roster’s consistency and its current form. Only teams that played at least five maps on a specific map made it into the leaderboard for that location; otherwise, a single successful evening would turn a random result into a nice-looking but meaningless percentage.

The exception is Cache, which recently returned to the official map pool: even active rosters have only played two to four games on it so far, so these figures are provided as a rough guide rather than definitive proof of strength. Percentages are rounded to whole numbers, and VRS trends are calculated based on Valve’s official data snapshots from February 2, May 4, and August 3—thanks to this, the ranking shows not a snapshot in time, but each team’s trajectory.

In February, the top of the rankings looked completely different, but Spirit was steadily climbing toward it: sixth place in the winter gave way to fifth in the spring, and by August, the team had already topped Valve’s official list. The standout story of growth belongs to 9z, which climbed from 57th to 19th to fourth place, and right alongside it is another impressive surge—TYLOO rose from 74th to 18th.

Behind the leaders, a whole wave of new contenders has emerged: magic climbed 36 spots, JiJieHao 29, Alliance 23, and BetBoom Team moved up from 26th place in February to ninth ahead of the EWC. The rankings are just as unforgiving when it comes to downward movement, so the drops of 3DMAX from 14th to 31st, M80’s drop from 21st to 36th, and PARIVISION’s fall from third to 12th do not appear to be isolated setbacks, but rather a full-fledged six-month trend.

Even Vitality, which was in first place as recently as May, had slipped to fifth place by August, although it remains the tournament’s most successful team over the long term—the first example of why VRS alone is insufficient for forecasting. There is also a technical caveat: VRS is determined by the roster, not the club’s name, so after transfers, a team’s ranking must be interpreted in conjunction with the stability of its core lineup.

* The arrow indicates the trend through August 3. Luminosity is listed under its former name, Monte; for 100 Thieves, the count begins in May.

While VRS shows a team’s current standing, its six-month form answers a more important question—which teams are less likely than others to falter over the long haul—and here, Vitality leaves almost no room for debate. Over 32 series and 80 maps, the team has won 81% of their matches, 75% of the maps, and 58% of all rounds: no other EWC participant tops the standings across all three performance metrics simultaneously.

Spirit comes closest in terms of matches, with a 79% win rate over 34 series; however, on individual maps, they trail Vitality by nine percentage points, while the Falcons sit even lower with a 74% win rate in matches and a 63% win rate on maps. 9z looks particularly impressive, as its 70% win rate is not based on a short-term surge but on a sample of 40 matches and exactly 100 maps—the largest sample size among the top four.

MOUZ’s stats are more modest—63% win rate in matches and 59% on maps—but the percentages don’t tell the whole story: the team won the most recent major tournament, defeating Spirit 3-1 in the BLAST Bounty final. FURIA is coming off a Major final with a six-month win rate of 58%, while Astralis is holding steady at 56%, though they already have a negative kill-death ratio over their last 15 matches—the two teams’ form is heading in opposite directions.

The current scene isn’t dominated by a single team: the last six major titles were claimed by Vitality, Spirit, Falcons, NAVI, 9z, and MOUZ, so almost every new tournament has changed the answer to the question of which roster is the strongest in the world. Spirit reached the finals more often than any other team, winning PGL Astana and finishing second at IEM Rio and BLAST Bounty, but it is precisely this consistency that makes their two lost finals stand out more than their single title.

After losing to Spirit in Astana, the Falcons responded with a victory at the Major, while 9z crushed PARIVISION 3-0 in Guangzhou—its rise to fourth place in the VRS rankings was confirmed not only by the rankings but also by tournament results.

In terms of kill rate, the gap is already noticeable: donk averages 0.9 kills per round, ZywOo — 0.85, m0NESY at 0.81, so for every hundred rounds, the first is ahead of the third by about nine kills. The overall score changes the order but not the composition of the top three: ZywOo and donk each score 7.1; the French player takes the lead thanks to the other components of the model, while m0NESY holds onto third place with a score of 6.9.

The depth of firepower is unevenly distributed, as Vitality, Falcons, and NAVI each have two representatives in the top 10, while Spirit, BetBoom, Legacy, and FURIA rely on a single player from that group. Magnojez stands out as the most intriguing hybrid: the BetBoom rifler combines a 0.76 KPR and a 6.6 Score with a rating of 1.22, 92 Firepower points, and 77 Utility points, maintaining a balance between shooting and teamwork.

A 3.0 rating puts donk in a league of his own: over the past three months, he’s posted a 1.45 across 45 maps, while the closest competitor, ZywOo, has a 1.32 over a sample of 28 maps. Behind them lies a much tighter pack, where m0NESY has 1.23, Magnojez at 1.22, kyousuke and frozen at 1.19 each, w0nderful at 1.18, and xertioN, sh1ro, and Wicadia tied at 1.17. However, having the same or similar ratings doesn’t necessarily make players alike: Firepower ranks donk, ZywOo, m0NESY, Magnojez, and kyousuke in his top five, while Opening ranks Magnojez second and places xertioN above m0NESY.

The most striking shift occurs in exchanges, where w0nderful leads with 91 points, followed by sh1ro with 79 and kyousuke with 74; donk scores 70, remaining the top marksman but not the best performer in every individual task. This is precisely why the role table shouldn’t be read from top to bottom as just another ranking: it shows which actions contribute to a player’s overall effectiveness and what workload they take on within a round.

Over a 15-match stretch, Spirit has the highest margin of safety: 3.52 kills and 3.12 deaths per round result in a +0.4 difference, and no other team in the selected group of eight comes close to this level. Vitality doesn’t stand out for the highest number of frags, but with a nearly perfect balance—3.44 kills and 375.59 damage per round—with Aurora unexpectedly sitting very close behind at 3.43 kills and 375.62 damage.

FURIA looks like another consistent contender in the top tier, averaging 3.4 kills and 3.11 deaths, while Astralis remains the only team with a negative kill-death ratio and the lowest average damage at 356.25. 9z stands out as an anomaly: 25% of all hits land in the head, compared to 23% for the Falcons and 22% for Vitality, Aurora, and Astralis—though this figure should not be confused with the percentage of headshots resulting in kills.

In the grenade performance rankings, apEX and magixx share first place with 94 points, closely followed by Gizmy with 93, then Aleksib with 91, and xertioN with 87. This top five clearly illustrates the value of the support role: apEX’s Firepower is 26, magixx’s is 24, while Aleksib’s and karrigan’s are just 1, since their value comes not from one-on-one combat but from setting up the map for their teammates.

The main exception is xertioN, who combines 87 Utility points with 82 Firepower and a rating of 1.17, although Magnojez goes even further—92 Firepower points, 77 for grenades, and a rating of 1.22. KSCERATO maintains the same versatile profile with 74 Firepower and 77 Utility, while sh1ro adds not only 65 in grenades to his 80 Firepower points but also the best Clutching score among the participants—94.

This highlights an important contrast: Utility leaders often sacrifice personal stats for the sake of team structure, but several riflers and snipers manage to both set up plays and close out rounds on their own.

The Opening Score evaluates the quality of the first duels, and here the top five look stellar: donk scored 97, XANTARES—91, molodoy—87, Magnojez—85, and kyousuke—83. Entry is more dependent on risk, so the list changes: karrigan scored 87 points, kyxsan—81, donk—78, xertioN—76, Aleksib scored 75, and captains are more likely than others to open up space at the expense of their personal stats.

After the first duel, the hierarchy shifts again: w0nderful leads in exchanges with 91 points, followed by sh1ro with 79, kyousuke with 74, yuurih with 73, and donk with 70, while xertioN scores only 27. In clutch situations, sh1ro tops the list with 94, followed by yuurih with 92, nqz with 90, w0nderful with 88, and ZywOo with 85—with the three main snipers in the top five highlighting the value of the AWP in the late stages of the round.

The first kill doesn’t guarantee a round win, but Vitality almost turns their lead into a formality: the team closes out 78% of 5v4 situations and, at the same time, saves the best among the participants in 33% of 4v5 rounds.

Spirit stays close on both sides—77% when outnumbered and 31% when outnumbered—while the Falcons also win back 31% of 4v5 rounds but convert only 73% of situations where they have an extra player. The most dramatic shift in leadership occurs in pistol rounds, where Aurora wins 60%, ahead of the Falcons at 56%, Vitality at 55%, and NAVI at 48%—a single successful start can instantly change the dynamics of the half. With full buys, the order returns to more familiar territory: Vitality takes 64% of rounds, Spirit—63%, Falcons, 9z, and FURIA each at 60%, while the range from NAVI to Astralis falls between 57% and 59%.

The map pool restores Vitality’s status as the benchmark: the team leads on Inferno with an 83% win rate, Dust2 with 79%, and Mirage with 75%, with an impressive total sample size of 47 games across the three maps. The Falcons counter with two strongholds of their own—88% on Anubis across eight maps and 78% on Nuke across nine, where Vitality trails by just one percentage point, turning what could have been a decisive lead into a nearly even matchup.

On Ancient, Spirit takes the lead with an 83% win rate, but NAVI (78% across 18 maps) and Astralis (76% across 21 maps) form the next tightest trio of leaders, though they trail by a significant margin. Map diversity remains an advantage for Spirit, which has five maps with a win rate of at least 60%; Vitality has four such maps, while Falcons, 9z, and Aurora each have three.

There are still no perfect teams: Vitality has won only 38% of their Anubis matches, Spirit consistently bans Inferno, Aurora doesn’t play Ancient, Astralis avoids Anubis, and magic avoids Nuke—so a ban can weaken any favorite even before the first round. Cache should be set aside for now, since 75% of magic’s wins came on four maps, 67% of Astralis’s on three, and 50% of Spirit’s on just two—and such a small sample size doesn’t allow for a meaningful comparison.

Based on the median VRS, Group B looks the strongest with a score of 14.5: Falcons, Legacy, and BetBoom are all in the top ten, so there’s less room here for an easy win. Group C has a median of 16 and is anchored by MOUZ and Vitality in third and fifth place, while Group D, with a median of 19, features three top-8 teams—9z, NAVI, and FURIA.

Group A best illustrates the weakness of the median: the presence of Spirit and Aurora, with JiJieHao ranked 58th, raises the median to 21.5, even though its two main favorites remain the world’s No. 1 and No. 10 teams. In a best-of-one format, the depth of Group B may prove more important than its impressive top tier, and Group D’s main advantage lies not in its average ranking but in its three teams, each of which is statistically capable of going far.

The narrowest gap is between Luminosity and GamerLegion, separated by just two VRS positions; three positions separate MIBR and Astralis, while BetBoom and FaZe, as well as FUT and TYLOO, are four positions apart. At the opposite end of the spectrum is the matchup between Spirit and JiJieHao, with a difference of 57 spots, while Falcons are 37 spots ahead of K27, Vitality leads 100 Thieves by 35, and FURIA is 30 spots ahead of Wildcard.

On average, the starting opponents are separated by 19.8 positions, with a median of 21, but it is precisely the single-map format that prevents this advantage from averaging out over a full series—all it takes for the favorite to lose is a failed pistol round, poor economy, or a single bad veto. The ranking accurately reflects the gap, but the opening BO1 tests something entirely different: the ability to jump right into the tournament without leaving time for adjustments during the match.

Each contender has its own case to make: Vitality has won 81% of its matches over the past six months, Spirit tops the VRS rankings and boasts a 0.9 KPR from donk, while the Falcons bring an 88% win rate on Anubis and a 78% win rate on Nuke. There are also less obvious advantages—Aurora’s 60% pistol round win rate, apEX and magixx’s 94 Utility points each, and 9z’s incredible rise of 53 positions since February.

No single metric aligns with the others enough to declare an undisputed favorite: the last six major titles have been won by six different EWC participants, and the leaders in overall performance, VRS, shooting, and individual maps are constantly swapping places. It is precisely this statistical unpredictability that makes the tournament particularly interesting, since in a single best-of-1 match, a team’s long-term form can be overshadowed by a lucky map pick, an individual star can be outshone by a strong team structure, and a high ranking can be undone by losing a few key rounds.