Updated prediction for qualification to the PGL Singapore Major 2026: 85.7% chance that BC.Game Esports will qualify

VRS analyst Finn “Mischief” Farrer has published an updated forecast on the teams’ race to qualify for the PGL Singapore Major 2026. The latest calculations were posted on his page on social media platform X.

According to the new calculations, there is a greater than 99% probability that Team Spirit, Team Vitality, Team Falcons, MOUZ, G2 Esports, and Aurora Gaming will qualify for the Major from Europe. FUT Esports (99.99%), BetBoom Team (98.4%), B8 Esports (93.9%), Astralis (86%), magic (81.7%), and FaZe Clan (72.2%).

Also in the qualifying zone are Alliance (70.9%), HEROIC (67.9%), BIG (67.3%), PARIVISION (67.2%), and Natus Vincere (62.6%). The analyst noted, however, that NAVI needs to secure five wins in ESL Pro League Season 24 and PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 to guarantee qualification. Four wins, he estimates, will be sufficient in approximately 90% of cases.

HOTU (46.3%), Nemiga Gaming (38.6%), 3DMAX (37.2%), 100 Thieves (36.9%), Luminosity Gaming (28.2%), and 1w Team (27.1%). Below them are Virtus.pro (12.9%), GamerLegion (12.7%), JiJieHao (10.7%), fnatic (10.5%), K27 (5.6%), and Ninjas in Pyjamas (5.4%).

In the North American region, the current forecast gives Legacy, FURIA, MIBR, 9z Team, and Team Liquid a greater than 99% chance of qualifying for the Major. M80 (97.7%), NRG (88.1%), and DENDELE CS (87.1%) also have high chances. Wildcard (33.4%), SBE (26.4%), Fluxo (14.6%), paiN Gaming (11.9%), ShindeN (11.6%), Imperial Esports (10.6%), and BESTIA (9.6%) are still competing for the region’s final spot. 

In the Asian region, TYLOO leads the projections with a 92.34% chance of qualifying. Next are BC.Game Esports (85.7%), The MongolZ (79.42%), FlyQuest (65.1%), and 5star eSports (58.56%). Outside the qualification zone are THUNDERDOWNUNDER (51.82%), Lynn Vision Gaming (30.38%), NEXVOID (12.98%), Alter Ego (7.88%), and WW Team (6.32%).

Farrer specifically noted the challenges faced by Chinese teams due to tournament postponements and cancellations. According to him, teams from China need more local LAN tournaments to earn ranking points. 

The PGL Singapore Major 2026 will take place in Singapore from November 25 to December 13, 2026. The tournament will feature 32 teams competing for the championship title and a share of the $1,250,000 prize pool.

Photo by Adela Sznajder, ESL.