Mortalles shared his predictions for the Day 1 matches of the survival stage of the 2026 Esports World Cup in Dota 2

As things stand, it looks like none of the teams playing today will make it to the playoffs. LGD has the best chance if they win today. But even then, their chances are slim—I’m not very impressed with LGD so far.

The weakest matchup on paper, but potentially the most interesting one if you ignore the tags. VP made it out of the “Group of Death” by defeating OG in their final match. They draft well and look even better in macro play. Saberlight is in excellent form. There are a couple of interesting picks.
I didn’t like RE’s. Their only notable achievements in the group stage were their maps against XG and BB. Should we take that into account? I don’t think so. BB had one of the worst drafts of the tournament, and they would’ve played just fine against XG and the eliminated teams.
RE plays very slowly and greedily, relying on willpower-driven comebacks with [Doom], and wins in an average of 50+ minutes. I see greedy drafts, so I’m playing all kinds of races or ITB against VP. If they start picking more tempo-oriented heroes, VP will have a decent chance. [Doom with Dark Seer]—these are the key heroes of the series. RE must ban the latter; otherwise, it’ll be tough for their carry with that hero pool.
I’d like to see VP pull off a win. So far, they’ve looked better.

No matter how bad Liquid may seem, I wouldn’t call XG the favorite in any universe going into this match.
Liquid is capable of adapting as the tournament progresses, while Xtreme currently looks like a team that will fail at both this tournament and the upcoming International on home soil.
They have no game plan, can’t keep up with the pace, and are losing their lanes.
Their only chance is to hope for some reckless drafts from Liquid—who might pick [Spectre and Witch Doctor] just for the heck of it—and then fall apart because they’re losing 8,000 gold on the lanes in 10 minutes.
It’s closer to a 2-0 sweep. Or maybe a MIRACLE will happen, and XG will start playing like they did at the last International.

As for Vici, on the other hand, I only want to say good things. They’ve lost to just two favorites and easily swept the rest.
Xinq is in good form. It seems like the team is just having fun playing. They don’t always stick to the meta; they’re not afraid to pick [Zeus and Mirana], and they’re bringing back forgotten carries. The problem against PlayTime could arise for two reasons:
the South Americans’ hit-and-run Dota style and [Necrophos].
You’ve got to ban them, guys. Ban them in the first phase. Because Playtime will pick them up in the draft as well. But if they don’t, Darkmago is in trouble. He’s having a mediocre tournament and has only 4 heroes in his pool across 10 maps. XM will destroy him on a hypothetical [Lina].
Before the match starts, I’m rooting for VG, but after the picks, things will become clearer, of course.

Something’s off with LGD. On the positive side, they’ve completely ditched the worst hero on the planet—[Viper]
. But that’s where the positives end. I’m still not entirely objective in my assessment of this team, but I think they have some potential. If they’re going to be eliminated, it’ll be in the next round.
MOUZ put on a show against Spirit, but then fell apart, even losing a map to Nemesis. I’ll admit they might win a map, but they’ll have to try really hard. Otherwise, I’m naturally rooting for LGD. <...>