Udknud modeled the VRS rankings following BLAST Bounty Summer 2026

Analyst Jesper “Udknud” Larsen posted on his personal X page, presenting his forecast for the August VRS rankings following the conclusion of the LAN stage of BLAST Bounty Summer 2026.

According to the analyst, the calculations are based on 10,000 simulations of possible playoff outcomes. Unlike the projected HLTV ranking, his model also takes into account the impact of the prize pool on the distribution of VRS points. That said, Team Spirit has already secured first place in the ranking regardless of the team’s performance at the tournament.

According to the forecast, the biggest changes may occur among the other participants in the LAN stage. If MOUZ wins the tournament, it will rise to third or fourth place in the world rankings; The MongolZ will move up to third through sixth; FaZe Clan will climb to sixth through eighth; and Team Liquid will move up to ninth through tenth. If they win the championship, Astralis and paiN Gaming could enter the top 16, while 3DMAX could climb to the 16th–19th range.

Udknud also noted that even a single victory in the quarterfinals could significantly affect the teams’ positions in the VRS. According to the simulation results, the range of possible placements for MOUZ is from third to tenth, for FaZe Clan—from sixth to sixteenth, for Astralis—from tenth to twenty-fourth, and for Team Liquid—from ninth to thirty-second.

Valve published the latest VRS ranking on July 6. Team Spirit tops the list, followed by Team Falcons. Team Vitality has dropped to third place, and FURIA rounds out the top five.

Photos by Stephanie Lindgren, BLAST; Udknud.