The CIS team has a ~92.5% chance of reaching the TI 2026 Grand Final — Noxville updated his Monte Carlo simulation
Team Liquid Technical Director Ben “Noxville” Stenheisen shared updated results of his Monte Carlo simulation for The International 2026 on his X profile following the qualification of PARIVISION (competing under the tag TEAM VISION) and Team Spirit for the tournament.
He updated the Monte Carlo simulations after PARIVISION and Team Spirit qualified for TI through the closed European qualifiers. Their chances of winning now stand at 20.1% and 6.3%, respectively.
According to the mathematical model, the overall probability that at least one team from Eastern Europe will reach the TI 2026 Grand Final is approximately 92.5%.
According to the updated data, Team Yandex has the highest chance of winning—it emerged as champion in 21.9% of simulations and made it into the top 8 in 83.8% of cases. PARIVISION remains in second place, and Aurora Gaming in third; however, they now won the championship in 20.1% and 14.2% of scenarios, respectively.
Earlier, Team Liquid’s technical director Ben “Noxville” Stenheisen reported that the number of games against bots in Ability Draft mode had dropped sharply over the past two weeks, citing possible reasons for this trend.
Photo: Ben “Noxville” Stenheisen.
