
The Thunderpick World Championship 2026 will take place in Malta from October 14 to 18. The absence of the ESL Pro League Season 24 finalists gives other participants a shot at the trophy, but not everyone is heading into the tournament in top form. I’ll break down who’s ready to seize this opportunity and who’s at risk of an early exit.
Virtus.pro has withdrawn from the tournament: Alexander “AquaRS” Kovalev ran into visa issues, and Diaz “F0R3VER” Kutubay has put his career on hold due to health reasons. After winning the closed qualifier, it’s especially unfortunate to miss the chance to face strong opponents: I was looking forward to seeing how ready this roster is for this level of competition. Ninjas in Pyjamas, who recently won ROG JOURNEY Autumn 2026, will travel to Malta in place of VP. I wouldn’t carry over expectations from that success to a tournament where they’ll face Team Falcons right off the bat. Aurora Gaming and 9z Team will also be in the same group, so I expect NIP to be eliminated early: to advance, they’ll have to beat opponents who are significantly stronger than their previous ones.

For Team Falcons, this is the perfect tournament to cement their status as favorites with a title. Team Vitality, MOUZ, and Team Spirit won’t be in Malta, so the expectations for their performance here are higher than they were at ESL Pro League Season 24. In Katowice, the Falcons lost to Spirit 0–2 in the quarterfinals, but earlier they defeated Aurora 2–0. For me, this victory is more important than the big names on the roster: the Falcons have already shown that they’re capable of beating one of their main rivals. I don’t expect it to be a walk in the park, but my pick for the championship is the Falcons, and an elimination before the finals with this field of competitors would be a disappointment.
Of the remaining teams, I have the most faith in Aurora Gaming: their third-place finish in Katowice gives us good reason to expect another strong performance. There, Aurora defeated Spirit 2-0 and took a map from Vitality in the semifinals, so it’s impossible to attribute their success solely to a favorable bracket. Their loss to the Falcons keeps me from predicting they’ll win the title, but advancing out of the group stage seems like a very achievable goal. They have a recent 2-0 victory over 9z, and NIP’s successes so far have come in tournaments with weaker fields. I expect Aurora to advance to the playoffs alongside the Falcons, and then on to the final: after their performance in Katowice, I see no reason to give the edge to their Group B opponent just yet.
My pick for the dark horse in the semifinals is PARIVISION: in Katowice, PARIVISION knocked out G2 Esports and Natus Vincere, winning both single-elimination matches. Their first opponent in Malta is Legacy, with captain Andrei Felipe “arT” Piovezan Machado returning to the roster. It would be strange to write off the FISSURE PLAYGROUND 3 winner—CS—just because of a poor performance with a stand-in, but the captain’s return alone doesn’t guarantee they’ll play as well as they did in their first match. This is where I see an opportunity for PARIVISION: a strong start will allow them to avoid an early knockout match in the group, which also features FURIA and BetBoom Team. Of all my predictions, this is the most controversial one, but I’ll take a chance on PARIVISION and leave Legacy out of the playoffs.
In Group B, I’m also counting on FURIA to advance to the playoffs, though I don’t expect a repeat of last year’s championship. In Katowice, FURIA defeated both PARIVISION and BetBoom Team, so there’s reason to expect success in these familiar matchups. However, FURIA coach Sydney “sidde” Masedo Pereira Filho mentioned fatigue and a lack of preparation time in an interview, and the short break before Malta is unlikely to allow them to fix everything at once.

Therefore, my prediction is a loss in the semifinals: I have more faith in the consistency of the Falcons and Aurora. I expect BetBoom to have the worst result in Group B: in Katowice, BetBoom won one series out of four, and now they’ll face FURIA again after their recent 0-2 loss. Considering their other opponents, I predict they’ll be eliminated without a single win.