A potential scheduling conflict could reduce Natus Vincere’s chances of qualifying for the PGL Major Singapore 2026

Analyst Finn “Mischief” Farrer has presented an updated forecast on the teams’ chances of qualifying for the PGL Major Singapore 2026 via the European VRS ranking. The expert shared this information on his personal page on social media platform X.

According to the published calculations, MOUZ, Team Spirit, Team Vitality, and Team Falcons hold the top positions, with a 99.99% probability of qualifying for the Major. These four teams are in the running for a direct invite to the third stage of the championship. They are followed by Aurora Gaming (99.98%), FUT Esports (99.97%), G2 Esports (99.95%), and Astralis (99.7%), all of which are currently advancing to the second stage of the event. Also included here are 1w Team (86.9%), HEROIC (86.3%), PARIVISION (83.3%), and BetBoom Team (81.4%).

Currently holding onto their spots in the invite zone are FaZe Clan (80.1%), Nemiga Gaming (73.1%), B8 Esports (64.2%), IC Esports (61.5%), Ninjas in Pyjamas (59.5%), and Natus Vincere (56.4%), all of whom are vying for a seed in the first stage. Mischief notes a critical scheduling conflict for the “Born to Win” teams at the end of the month. From October 24 to 31, the team is scheduled to compete in PGL Masters Bucharest 2026, but HyperX Retake Season 13 begins on October 29. The overlap in the dates of these two events may prevent Natus Vincere from playing all their matches, resulting in forfeit losses, the loss of crucial VRS points, and reduced chances of qualifying for the Major.

Fnatic deserves special mention, as it retains a theoretical chance of receiving an invite (15.3%) thanks to its qualification for the 1win Private Club Season 2. Among the teams currently trailing, magic (40.1%), Alliance (35.7%), ENVY (31.1%), BIG (29.7%), and 100 Thieves (25.4%). At the same time, teams such as Luminosity Gaming (23.5%), HOTU (20.8%), GamerLegion (13.9%), 9Pandas (9.9%), Eternal Fire (3.1%), Team Nemesis (3.5%), BBL Esports (2.9%), and SINNERS Esports (0.1%) have virtually no chance of qualifying for the tournament.

Earlier, HOTU’s CS2 coach Rustem “mou” Telepov commented on Valve’s decision to allow BC.Game Esports to compete for a slot at the PGL Major Singapore 2026 and to keep the team in the Asian VRS region.

Photo: Valve.