Intuition or analytics: what does the Pick’Em at the IEM Cologne Major 2026 reveal about the unpredictability of the pro scene?

Historically, before the start of a CS2 Major, players have the opportunity to purchase a spectator pass and make their own predictions on the outcome of each stage of the tournament. This mechanic kicks off a race for the current tournament’s Diamond Coin, where every correctly predicted team brings players one step closer to winning it. But with each new Major, this system increasingly turns into a test of stress resilience. And the IEM Cologne Major 2026 only confirmed this trend: even well-known players, analysts, and content creators made mistakes where everything seemed quite obvious. Let’s take a look at whose predictions came true most often and which teams were overrated.

To understand whether the tournament’s outcome was obvious to most players, we need to look at publicly available statistics on coin distribution among viewers who participated in the medal race. According to CSXP.gg, the total number of players who received a diamond coin for the IEM Cologne Major 2026 exceeded 1,150, which is significantly higher than the two previous Majors in Budapest and Austin, but is still noticeably lower than in Shanghai.

Even before Cologne, the predictability of tournaments had declined significantly since 2024. This time around, however, the situation looked a bit different than it had in the past: many stages offered opportunities for safer predictions, where the five required correct picks could be made with slightly higher probability.

The third stage of the Major served as a sort of filter: many players’ predictions included Natus Vincere and FUT Esports, but the teams that advanced to the playoffs were not the most obvious contenders, including 9z Team, Aurora Gaming, and BetBoom Team. The final stage, however, proved disastrous for those who believed in a victory for Team Spirit or Team Vitality—and such viewers made up the overwhelming majority.

We’ve compiled an overall ranking of those whose picks were most accurate across all four stages. The most important factor here is consistency—getting one stage right is much easier than maintaining consistency at every stage. We’ll base our ranking on the number of teams correctly predicted to advance, according to the tipsters.

Duncan “Thorin” Shields emerged as the clear winner in our rankings. He didn’t pick the champion correctly (a mistake made by the vast majority), having bet on Team Vitality, but he was significantly more accurate than the rest in the overall standings.

Travis “Trav” Landau Mott and Janko “YNk” Paunović tied for second place. Their correct picks for the top three teams in the first three stages were Team Spirit, Team Vitality, Team Falcons, FURIA, G2 Esports, and BetBoom Team. However, they were unable to surpass Thorin in points due to underestimating the form of Finn “karrigan” Andersen’s roster.

It’s important to note a consistent trend: widespread belief that Natus Vincere and FUT Esports would advance to the playoffs, which did not happen. This is one of the most common mistakes in predictions, second only to choosing the wrong champion—Team Falcons seemed to most people like the least likely winner, unlike Vitality and Spirit. It was precisely these facts that dealt the most devastating blows to the overwhelming majority of strong Pick’Em picks.

Of course, there were some outright disappointments as well. Situations where a seemingly obvious favorite with a big-name roster gets knocked out due to an unfavorable tournament bracket or issues with individual form have become commonplace in Major predictions.

The very first stage held several pitfalls. The main ones were two teams that most predictors had pegged as clear favorites to advance—HEROIC and Team Liquid. But luck turned its back on these rosters, and their spots in the next stage were taken by the least likely contenders—TYLOO and FlyQuest.

Speaking of the latter, it’s worth noting that FlyQuest proved to be the stumbling block that dashed many players’ hopes for a favorable bracket, taking the spots of more popular teams.

Stage 2 turned out to be the most predictable of all, so from a pick-and-ban perspective, everything was much clearer and simpler. The teams most frequently mentioned in players’ predictions were Team Spirit, BetBoom Team, G2 Esports, FUT Esports, and Legacy. But even here, there were some unpleasant surprises.

These included Astralis and GamerLegion, which unexpectedly found themselves eliminated. Monte could be called the stage’s anti-hero of sorts, as she was the least frequently chosen by viewers but still made her way up the bracket.

The third stage saw the greatest number of shattered hopes for the diamond coin. Initially, everything seemed more than obvious, but this very fact played a cruel joke on many viewers. Team Vitality, Team Spirit, FURIA, and Team Falcons were considered shoo-ins, which was never in doubt, but the remaining slots became a source of complete chaos.

Most predictors believed Natus Vincere, FUT Esports, and The MongolZ would succeed, but their spots were taken by 9z Team, Aurora Gaming, and BetBoom Team, while the top three teams were sent home.

In the final stretch, opinions were divided: some saw Team Vitality as the champion, while others favored Team Spirit. Even fewer considered FURIA a likely winner.

Team Falcons had established itself in the global community as a team capable of reaching the final but not winning it. That perception shattered the hopes of some predictors—along with their Pick’Em bets—when Nikola “NiKo” Kovač lifted the Major trophy for the first time in his career.

We can’t fail to mention the truly bold predictions that actually came true in Cologne. For example, Vladislav “xiELO” Lysov was one of the few who believed in FlyQuest, a team the rest considered an underdog and a clear candidate for elimination. It wasn’t the most popular opinion, but it clearly held true given the circumstances.

Yuri “faydett” Martirosov’s pick was also of great interest. He made a bet—risky for many in the Pick’Em contest—on a final between FURIA and Team Falcons, and his prediction turned out to be the closest to the actual outcome.

We can’t overlook those who were rooting for 9z Team to win. Yes, the predictions that Artem “r1nkle” Moroz and Viktor “TaZ” Voitas, didn’t come true, but the team advanced deep into the Major bracket, reaching the playoffs—which is already a more than respectable result.

However, in addition to the valid prediction options for each stage, there were also Pick’Em bets, which, in light of the Major’s results, look like a distinct form of comedic art.

The IEM Cologne Major 2026 turned out to be much more predictable than the tournaments in Austin and Budapest, but it still maintained the trend of picks being dismantled at the stage of seemingly obvious choices. And, looking at the predictions made by well-known analysts and players, it’s clear that even the most experienced people are prone to making mistakes. The race for this summer’s diamond coin is over, but there are still plenty of tournaments ahead, and through predictions for those events, viewers will once again have the opportunity to test their analytical skills in a professional setting.