Natus Vincere’s chances of qualifying for the PGL Singapore Major 2026 have risen to 67.7% thanks to their competitors’ losses

The battle for Major spots in the European region has intensified to the extreme. The average gap between 18th and 19th place is about 8 points, and in some cases, it can drop below 1 point. At the moment, 100 Thieves is most likely to finish in the critical 19th spot. In this scenario, they would trail the 18th-place team by about 8 points.

It was previously assumed that Natus Vincere would choose to compete at IEM Beijing 2026 instead of participating fully in HyperX Retake Season 13. In the event of an early exit from PGL Masters Bucharest 2026, even a victory at the HyperX event would, in many simulations, leave the team out of the qualifiers, trailing by 10–15 points. Because of this, it seemed illogical to sacrifice two ESL events for the sake of a slim chance at a Major. However, 100 Thieves’ losses to HEROIC and MIBR changed the overall picture. NAVI’s position also improved due to HEROIC’s withdrawal from the RLG Tesla Cup 2026. If 100 Thieves had finished third at Stake Pulse Beat III, they would have consistently outranked NAVI, pushing them down to 19th place even if NAVI had triumphed at HyperX Retake Season 13. Luminosity Gaming also risks falling behind NAVI in 19th place by a similar point margin, as a victory over HEROIC became impossible due to the latter’s withdrawal.

Under current circumstances, a strong performance at HyperX Retake Season 13 will most likely allow Natus Vincere to secure a spot at the Major from the final 18th place. Based on this data, the VRS simulation has been updated to account for the team playing the entire HyperX tournament. An important factor remains the fill rate of the groups at the HyperX event: if they end up incomplete, the mathematical odds could change drastically due to the minimal difference between competitors.